Preseason Power Rankings: Maryville begins its Division I program
Plus: Michigan hiring Chris Lazary, three coaches receive extensions, Brad Berry's return to hockey, and more
Opening Faceoff
Before we get into the preseason rankings portion of the newsletter, we today’s issue also includes some news and notes:
Michigan has a new associate head coach.
Brad Berry is close to returning behind a bench.
Three coaches received contract extensions this week.
UNH is nearing a new AD.
Alright, ladies and gentlemen …
That’s right—it’s time for my preseason power rankings.
Before we dive into the top three teams today, here’s a look at the methodology behind the rankings.
1. Player Grades
First, every player in college hockey receives an individual grade.
The model is based on a modified version of Dom Luszczyszyn’s Game Score. Because the NCAA doesn’t track every data point available at the NHL level, I’ve adjusted the formula to fit the data that’s available through InStat. InStat provides an outstanding dataset—probably 90 percent of what I’d ideally like to have—but there are still a few gaps.
The formula closely mirrors the approach behind College Hockey News’ CHIP metric, with a few adjustments based on traits I value more heavily. Personally, I place a premium on tall, mobile defensemen and two-way power forwards. That doesn’t mean smaller or offense-first players are penalized, but players who excel in those areas receive additional value in the model.
The projections also account for player development. Last season’s performance is adjusted based on the expected improvement from freshman to sophomore year, sophomore to junior year, and so on. That development curve naturally flattens as players get older, reflecting the reality that most upperclassmen are closer to finished products. There are always exceptions—a player jumping from 15 points as a junior to 40 as a senior—but those cases are relatively uncommon.
Finally, each player’s production is adjusted for strength of schedule on a per-game basis before being projected over a standard 34-game regular season.
2. Incoming Freshmen
The same process is used for incoming freshmen.
InStat tracks junior hockey extensively, allowing me to translate junior production into NCAA projections. Over the past four seasons, I’ve built a projection model by comparing freshman performance against their previous junior league and age.
Age matters. A 17-year-old scoring 60 points in 50 USHL games projects differently than a 20-year-old posting identical numbers. Players also receive a modest boost based on their Neutral Zone star rating.
3. Team Grades
Simply adding together every player’s rating doesn’t work because roster sizes vary from school to school.
Instead, I project each team’s lineup using its top 13 forwards, top seven defensemen, and the two highest-rated goaltenders. That creates an apples-to-apples comparison by ensuring every team is evaluated using the same number of players, regardless of whether it carries 26 skaters or 30.
Those player grades are then combined to produce each team’s overall score.
4. Positional Rankings
Each team receives separate rankings for its forwards, defense, and goaltending using the same top-13, top-seven, and two-goalie methodology.
You can follow all of the preseason rankings throughout the series by bookmarking this page:
All 63 Rankings: Maryville is the newest addition to college hockey
Storylines
Maryville is embarking on its inaugural Division I season. John Hogan is the program’s first head coach and Assistant AD for hockey.
Renovations are ongoing at the Maryville University Hockey Center in Chesterfield, Mo. That’s the home of the program, and D-I facilities (locker room, coaching areas, etc) are part of the project.
