Today’s newsletter is a mailbag edition.
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Submissions in this mailbag include:
What are the chances the Team USA Act passes, restricting non-American athletes in college sports?
Thoughts on the new media timeouts in Hockey East this season?
Why do some college hockey teams limit number selections?
How concerning is Hockey East’s nonconference record?
Will BU’s offense improve?
Will there be any disciplinary action following a Niagara-Bowling Green scrum this past weekend?
When will the next round of Frozen Four locations be announced?
Is the CCHA a two-team race?
Early impressive/disappointing starts?
Could RPI be this year’s Princeton, and make a deep run into the ECAC playoffs?
What team has surprised me most this season?
Mailbag: Chances the Team USA Act passes? Questions on BU, RPI, and the CCHA
Q. As a BU fan, feeling good about the team this year overall but the offensive woes and losing to Vermont on a Friday has last year written all over it, thoughts on their start of the season? — Joe M.
Q. [Similar question] BU has given up 4 goals in 4 games and the defense seems to be more of a buy in this year. Do you think the offense will start to come around? — Danny M.
The loss to Vermont was definitely an off night for the BU offense, but personally, I’m not all that worried about the Terriers.
Expected goals is a shot metric. I think people equate it with actual goals because of the name, but it really measures shot quality. The better the shot quality, the more expected goals. Generally, the team with better shot quality wins more often than not.
The Vermont loss was low-event hockey all around. But the Terriers generated almost 7.5 expected goals in their series at Alaska, and they bounced back against Vermont with 2.84 expected goals in an overtime win.
Honestly, I think BU’s bigger commitment to defense is a good thing and will serve the Terriers well in the long run. Over their last three games, they’ve allowed only three goals and 5.23 expected goals. That’s a good sign. The offense will come.
To put it bluntly, I thought the Terriers were terrible defensively for long stretches of last season. Some of their top players looked disinterested in competing in their own end, and it showed. Mikhail Yegorov faced more than a third of his shot attempts from high-danger areas.
It was really bad early last season. I thought it got better in December and into mid-January, then slipped back late in the year.
As for the offense, BU has some very high-end forwards. Tynan Lawrence went through his adjustment period to college hockey last season, and you’re seeing the results now. Caleb Malhotra is essentially halfway through his freshman season in terms of games played, so I think you’ll start to see more offense from him soon, too.
As a team, BU is shooting just 7%. That ranks 46th among the 57 teams that have played a game so far, and 7% would have ranked 62nd last season, tied with Alaska Anchorage and ahead of only Northern Michigan.
BU is absolutely, 100% more skilled than that, so the Terriers are due for some positive regression.
