Where things stand with the NPI and the bracket heading into conference championship weekend
Conference championship weekend drops the puck tomorrow, and the picture is coming into sharp focus.
Heading into the weekend, today’s newsletter (#662) is fully devoted to breaking down the current state of the NPI, sorting through the bubble, and mapping out the potential placement scenarios for the NCAA Tournament bracket.
If you have ideas for a future newsletter, tips to pass along, or questions for a mailbag, I’d love to hear from you. You can reach me anytime at mike@collegehockeyinsider.com. Sponsorship inquiries are also welcome.
You can also find me on X at @MikeMcMahonCHN.
And a sincere thank you to our premium subscribers — your support makes independent, in-depth college hockey coverage possible.
Now, let’s get into today’s newsletter.
Before we get into a projected bracket, let’s take a closer look at the NPI and establish what we can definitively say at this point.
The No. 1 Seeds Are Set in Stone
Not only are the four No. 1 seeds locked in, but their exact positions — one through four — are already determined:
Michigan
North Dakota
Michigan State
Western Michigan
Three of those four programs are idle this weekend after being eliminated last week, and Michigan cannot fall below North Dakota even with a loss in the Big Ten championship game.
There’s no intrigue here. The top of the bracket is settled.
Who Is Locked Into the NCAA Tournament?
Entering the weekend, 11 of the 16 NCAA Tournament spots are secured. Wisconsin’s odds are overwhelmingly favorable — if not mathematically certain — and the Atlantic Hockey champion will claim an automatic bid. That effectively brings the number of near-certainties to 13.
