Sunday Pairwise Update: Where things stand heading into tonight's Game 3s
There are two Game 3s on the schedule for tonight. Harvard and Clarkson will play in the ECAC at 4 p.m. ET and Colorado College and Denver will complete their series at 8 p.m. ET.
I’ll do a full Pairwise update on Monday, but here’s a glimpse of where things stand heading into tonight’s Game 3s.
First, Boston College was eliminated in the Hockey East Tournament last night by Northeastern. However, the Eagles will still be the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Eagles have enough of a gap on Michigan State that they won’t be caught for the No. 1 seed even if Michigan State wins the Big Ten next weekend.
Here are the current locks to make the NCAA Tournament:
Boston College*
Michigan State
Maine
Minnesota*
Western Michigan
Connecticut
Boston University
Providence*
Ohio State
Denver
Massachusetts*
Minnesota State (CCHA)
AHA Champion
*Lost in the conference tournament
That leaves three bids. If there is no line disruption, those final three bids will go to Quinnipiac, Penn State, and Michigan.
However, line movement (teams from non-qualifying positions winning automatic bids) would eliminate some of those three.
Quinnipiac: The Bobcats can still win the ECAC automatic bid next weekend in Lake Placid. Currently No. 12 in the Pairwise, they have a 90 percent overall chance of qualifying. If the Bobcats lose in the semifinals, that will drop to about 65 percent. If they win the semifinal and lose in the final, they will have a better than 95 percent chance of qualifying.
A win alone on Friday won’t lock up a bid for Quinnipiac. However, a Quinnipiac win on Friday, plus some other positive results, could clinch a spot for the Bobcats.
Penn State/Michigan: The Nittany Lions were eliminated last night by Ohio State in the Big Ten. Penn State still qualifies in 85 percent of current scenarios, however, the Nittany Lions must be keenly aware of potential line movement. Penn State needs current “locks” to win conference championships.
The Wolverines took a big hit this weekend. The Wolverines had a 45 percent chance of qualifying entering this weekend and dropped nearly 20 points over the last two days.
If you’re a Penn State or Michigan fan, you only want teams in current “lock” positions to win conference titles. The ECAC game might not matter much tonight. But these bubble teams want Denver to win in the NCHC.
If one line mover wins, Michigan will be in trouble. If two of those line movers win, Penn State could be in trouble.
To wrap it up:
NCAA Tournament Locks
Boston College
Michigan State
Maine
Minnesota
Western Michigan
Connecticut
Boston University
Providence
Ohio State
Denver
Massachusetts
Minnesota State (CCHA)
AHA Champion
The Bubble
These teams have the possibility of earning an at-large bid
Quinnipiac
Penn State
Michigan
Line Movers
These teams need to win their conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament
Arizona State
North Dakota
Cornell
Dartmouth
Clarkson
Northeastern
Bentley
Holy Cross
Colorado College
Harvard