Preview: Wisconsin vs. North Dakota

North Dakota returns to the Frozen Four for the first time in a decade this week, a milestone that echoes back to 2016, when Brad Berry guided the Fighting Hawks to a national championship in Tampa.

Wisconsin’s drought has been even longer. The Badgers haven’t reached this stage since 2010, when the Frozen Four was staged inside cavernous Ford Field in Detroit. That season ended one win short of a title, with Wisconsin finishing as the national runner-up to Boston College.

Thursday’s national semifinal shapes up as a game of discipline and restraint. It’s the kind of matchup where the first mistake could be the one that decides the result, because both teams are among the most structured in the country and are relentless in their play off the puck.

North Dakota enters the tournament ranked second nationally in shots allowed, while Wisconsin sits 11th. These teams don’t give their opponents very much room to operate.

“We find in these big games there aren’t a lot of rush chances,” UND coach Dane Jackson said. “You have to take what the game gives you. You have to manage the puck and play a simple game.”

And when chances do come, they have to be finished — because there won’t be many.

Both teams navigated demanding paths to get here. The Big Ten and NCHC schedules ensured that.

“If you’re not prepared on a given night, you won’t just get beat, you could get embarrassed,” Wisconsin coach Mike Hastings said. “That goes to the depth of the league. … Just from being here in the short time I have in these three years, when you watch your opponent, it’s not one, two, or three players you’re concerned about. It’s up front, it’s the D corps — the responsibilities go throughout the lineup. Hopefully that’s something we can lean on.”

Here’s how the matchup breaks down:

Wisconsin’s Keys to Victory

1) Lean on who got you here

With the exception of Luke Osburn and Gavin Morrissey, Wisconsin has relied heavily on its veteran core, which includes Ben Dexheimer, Joe Pablodichuk, Aiden Dubinsky, Quinn Finley, and Simon Tassy (among others).

That experience has defined this team’s identity under Hastings. In a game like this, it becomes even more critical. The Badgers don’t need to reinvent anything — they need to trust what’s carried them this far.

We know the way Mike Hastings wants Wisconsin to play. It’s not a secret. In Worcester two weeks ago, the veterans were the ones leading that charge.

2) Start fast

Wisconsin needed a comeback against Michigan State just to reach this point. That resilience is a strength, but it’s also a dangerous game to play against a team like North Dakota.

Falling behind early could be difficult to overcome. Chasing the game is difficult against any opponent, but I think it’s even more difficult against a team that plays as structured and hard as North Dakota does away from the puck. That’s been the biggest identity switch with North Dakota this season. They’re heavier, and it shows most when they are protecting leads. They can grind teams down to nothing.

3) Shot quality over quantity

North Dakota doesn’t give up much. As noted earlier, the Fighting Hawks allow the second-fewest shots on goal per game in the country.

That makes efficiency paramount. Wisconsin may not generate volume, so finishing chances become the priority.

The encouraging sign for the Badgers is their recent form. They’ve generated more than three expected goals in each of their last seven games, eclipsing four on two occasions. The offense is producing, but now it has to convert against one of the nation’s stingiest defenses.

North Dakota’s Keys to Victory

1) The third line factor

The trio of Cody Croal, Jack Kernan, and Tyler Young was a difference-maker in Sioux Falls, combining for five goals.

That line embodies North Dakota’s identity. They’re physical, direct, and relentless. They were relentless on the backcheck and made life hard for Merrimack and Quinnipiac. They don’t cross the line, but they definitely go up to the line without crossing it when it comes to physicality. They really personify NoDak’s new identity.

If they can tilt the ice again, it gives the Fighting Hawks a significant edge.

2) Špunar needs to be at his best again

After an up-and-down regular season, particularly down the stretch, Jan Špunar found his game at the right time. Back-to-back shutouts in the regionals doen’t happen often this late in the year.

Jackson noted that some of the late-season inconsistency had more to do with team play in front of him. Whatever the cause, Špunar was elite in Sioux Falls — and North Dakota will need that version again.

3) Keep the penalty kill perfect

North Dakota hasn’t allowed a power-play goal since March 6 against Omaha — a span of four games.

Penalty opportunities tend to be limited in games like this, but given the physical nature of both teams, special teams could still play a role. If the Fighting Hawks continue their perfect run on the kill, it significantly strengthens their path to the national title game.