NPI Tracker: Who is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament?
Plus: This week's bracket projection, a new No. 1 seed, UCHC standings, UAA returns to Sullivan Arena, and more
Happy Beanpot Championship Day to all who celebrate — namely, BC and BU fans.
Boston University and Boston College will drop the puck later tonight with the Beanpot title on the line (NESN). Before we get there, we’ll dive into this week’s NPI Tracker, which now includes my NCAA Tournament “locks,” along with an explanation of why teams are slotted where they are.
Also in today’s newsletter (#639):
This week’s bracket projection features a new No. 1 overall seed, as well as a new team joining the No. 1 seed line.
We break down the latest standings in the United Collegiate Hockey Cup, where the race for the top spot remains razor-tight.
Alaska Anchorage made its return to Sullivan Arena this weekend and drew nearly 10,000 fans.
And we explain why Penn State allocated just $95,000 in revenue sharing for men’s hockey in its most recent financial report.
This newsletter is brought to you by the United Collegiate Hockey Cup, the inaugural postseason tournament for college hockey’s independent programs, set for March 5–7 in St. Louis. Don’t miss your chance to be part of the first edition of this new championship event — click here to purchase tickets to the 2025 UCHC.
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Now, let’s get into today’s newsletter.
NPI Tracker: Who is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament?
Inter-Conference Records
Overall, inter-conference records for each league factor considerably into the NPI. Traditionally, the NCHC, Hockey East, and Big Ten have had the most teams per season make the NCAA Tournament, and that’s because those leagues traditionally perform the best in inter-conference games.
Here is where the inter-conference records stand as of this week:
Current NCAA Tournament Field
Automatic qualifiers are selected using the highest-ranked NPI team in each league. The Top 30 Pairwise teams each week are recorded. If a cell is left blank, that team was not in the Top 30 that week.
Click on this image to expand it
Conference Count
NCHC — 4 (Last Week: 4)
Big Ten — 4 (Last Week: 4)
ECAC — 3 (Last Week: 4)
Hockey East — 3 (Last Week: 2)
CCHA — 1 (Last Week: 2)
AHA — 1 (Last Week: 1)
Qualification Changes
IN: UConn
OUT: Augustana
Bracket Projection
This isn’t meaningful until conference championships are decided in March, but it’s still worth looking at weekly and tracking who has potentially locked up specific positions. Specifically, we’re looking at the No. 1 seeds because the placement of those teams will happen first in the process and will largely dictate what the rest of the bracket looks like.
Also, going through this process weekly can help us identify potential issues the committee will have to face when formulating the bracket.
Lining up the bracket using a straight serpentine order looks like this:
