(#271) Saturday Morning Pairwise Update

Merrimack improved its NCAA chances greatly thanks to this 2OT goal by Matt Copponi (Photo: Jim Stankiwiecz/Merrimack)

Welcome to Championship Saturday!

Here’s where things stand entering tonight.

Tournament Locks

1. Minnesota (No. 1 overall seed clinched)

2. Quinnipiac (No. 2 overall seed clinched)

3. Denver (No. 3-4 overall)

4. Michigan (No. 3-5 overall)

5. Boston University (No. 4-7 overall)

6. Harvard (No. 5-7 overall)

7. St. Cloud State (No. 5-7 overall)

8. Penn State (No. 8 seed clinched)

9. Ohio State (No. 9 seed clinched)

10. Michigan Tech (No. 10-13 overall)

11. Western Michigan (No. 10-14 overall)

Essential Locks (>95% probability)

12. Merrimack (96%) (No. 10, 13-14 overall)

13. Cornell (98%) (No. 11-14 overall)

Bubble Teams

14. Alaska (56%)

Potential Line-Moving Spoiler Teams

16. Colgate

17. Colorado College

Winner-Take-All Championship Games

AHA: Holy Cross vs. Canisius

CCHA: Minnesota State vs. Northern Michigan

Here are some notes on the individual teams:

Boston University: The Terriers can still end up as a No. 1 seed if they win the Hockey East championship and Michigan loses to Minnesota in the Big Ten championship. Either way, it looks like BU has the inside track in Manchester as the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. There is a 32% chance the Terriers fall to the No. 6 or No. 7 overall seed, and then placing them in Manchester gets a little more challenging, but the committee could still choose to do so.

Michigan: Should lock up the final No. 1 seed with a win over Minnesota.

Merrimack: Merrimack moved off the bubble last night into the “essential lock” category. The only scenario that keeps Merrimack out of the NCAA Tournament appears to be if the Warriors lose to BU in the Hockey East championship game, and both Colorado College AND Colgate win their championship games tonight. Merrimack will still earn an at-large bid if just one of those teams wins, even with a loss tonight.

Alaska: Alaska needs both Colgate and Colorado College to lose tonight. Merrimack’s win last night over Lowell pushed the Warriors ahead of Alaska in the Pairwise, and it won’t flip back even if Merrimack loses tonight. Therefore, Merrimack only needs one of those teams to lose, and Alaska needs both to lose to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.

Minnesota State/Northern Michigan: The CCHA Championship game is winner-take-all. We already know that Northern Michigan is a potential spoiler team, but the way the math works, Minnesota State will also get eliminated from NCAA contention with a loss in the CCHA championship game. Minnesota State can no longer earn an at-large bid.

Cornell: The only scenario that knocks out Cornell is if Merrimack, Colgate, and Colorado College all win tonight.